Hey all, I’m going away on a little trip tomorrow so I thought I’d post this before the market opens for once! I really do appreciate the love from a lot of you so I hope to continue making these and that I’ll be back in time for next week.
Recap from last week
1) USDCHF: So far so good on this pair; The price reversed at its peak just as the analysis predicted, and if you entered on this pair then you’d be up about 50 pips so far. Chump change if you ask me, but hopefully the consolidation at the 0.99576 S&R level (marked by the orange line) will come to a halt soon and continue its descent. Graph
2) NZDCAD: This prediction is also coming true so far – with a much faster climb than expected too! The price broke out of the descending channel quite nicely and is up ~120 pips from the entry order. We’re approximately 50% of the way to the final target! Graph
New setups
1) USDCAD: If you’ve been following some of my ideas then you’ll know i’m a big fan of this pair – even if it hasn’t been too cooperative with formations. I’ve noticed the USD settling in following Trump’s presidency (despite the odd statement that makes it go haywire), so here I’m speculating about an apparent Double Top formation that may ultimately drop to the 1.32 mark. Target 1 here can also double as a more conservative entry as I expect there to be some extensive consolidation here (marked by the ~ sign) which falls in line with data going back to last year (The S&R level also lines up with the Fib Retracements). Target 2 is a little more lenient as the entire blue rectangular area has seen consolidation, so it all depends on how aggressive you want to be. Target 3 is the neckline, and if you are very conservative, this would be your preferred entry point which would still net you a few pips which are all but guaranteed if the price hits this spot. Finally, we have Target 4 which is the upper limit of an Hourly S&R area and where you should be aiming if you want to ride the entire wave down.
Of course this is all for naught if Kashkari’s speech on Monday is bullish on the USD, but if it isn’t then we can see the drop happening about as fast as the one on the 15th of March. I personally do not like uncertainty regarding the news so I’m going to hold off on trading this until at least after Monday – even if it manages to hit the entry before. Entry: 1.34824, TP: 1.34576,1.33845, 1.32972, 1.32076, SL:1.35203. Graph
2) EURCAD: This idea’s been posted on my page since the 13th of April as I was holding off on sharing it until it looked like the ABCD pattern was indeed forming. Though the price still has a change of negating the structure entirely, I thought i’d post it anyway as I’m still monitoring some other pairs that have not ‘shown their hand’ yet. Analysis: I was waiting to for this pair to show signs of a reversal off of the 0.618 retracement. Now that it has done that, we can predict a potential bearish long-term ABCD pattern forming here – assuming that the D leg goes to completion. If this happens, we can also predict that the price will hit the 1.272 retracement at the 1.47540 mark sometime in late May 2017 then come back down to any of the 3 fib retracement levels (Drawn in red and based on the A-D leg) in Early June. I’m also expecting minor consolidation on both the bullish and bearish drives between the 1.42993 and 1.43491 price levels that may end up determining which target is most likely to be hit. As we’ve seen in previous ABCD and 3-drive patterns, trading the C-D leg is very risky and I wouldn’t really advise it. This is more of a proof of concept should the idea materialize. Aggressive Setup Entry: 1.41698 TP: 1.47586 SL: .1.40672 Conservative Setup Entry: 1.46586 TP: 1.43778, 1.42606, 1.41463 SL: 1.48319. If you took the aggressive entry, you would currently be up about 330 pips which is just over 50% of the way to the D leg completion. I wouldn’t recommend jumping in at this point and would suggest the conservative entry. Graph
I wish it was, but this isn’t the gospel so please take the necessary precautions when trading
Have a good week and good luck!
submitted by /u/Invictavis
[link] [comments]
April 23, 2017 at 12:22PM
from /u/Invictavis
No comments:
Post a Comment