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The Delhi High Court, in the case of Deepak Malhotra vs Deepti Malhotra and Ors, has held that the proportion of the husband’s income to be awarded as maintenance pendente lite to the wife is dependent on the surrounding circumstances and cannot be determined by a strict mathematical formula.
May 28, 2017 at 02:12PM
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Many things have tried to derail the eight-year-old equity bull market. They’ve all failed.
The surprise devaluation of the Chinese yuan, Brexit, the shocking US presidential election — they all gave it their best shot, but were ultimately stymied by optimistic investors who saw an opportunity to add to positions at discount prices.
So what will finally be able to put an end to what’s now the second-longest bull market in history?
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer of Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts, which oversees $114 billion, has some ideas. While still positive about stocks in the short-term, he sees a reckoning on the horizon that will strike within the next two years.
In an interview with Business Insider, McMillan spoke about his bear market call, valuations, investor complacency and President Donald Trump’s lessening impact.
This interview has been edited for clarity and length.
Joe Ciolli: There’s a subset of the investment population that says the market is overvalued, but earnings growth seems to be assuaging those fears somewhat right now. When will the market start reacting to stretched valuations?
Brad McMillan: I think the tipping point is going to be a rollover in consumer confidence, which is generally preceded by a rollover in job growth. I tie it all back to the economy.
Job growth is starting to decline. While we’re still growing, you can see that getting into a trouble zone somewhere in the 12 to 24-month range, if current trends continue. That’s when a lot of the hope starts to fade, and when consumer confidence starts to drop, that’s typically what causes the turn in multiples.
Right now we’re in relatively uncharted territory. We’re at the third-highest levels of all time. But that doesn’t mean we can’t keep moving higher in the near-term. We will until something intervenes to change that.
Ciolli: So that 12 to 24-month range — is that the time frame for a 10% correction, or for something deeper, like a 20% pullback that would put us into a bear market?
McMillan: I think the bear market scenario is quite possible. The comparison of where we are to 1999 makes a lot of sense. The economic trajectory over the past seven to eight years has been remarkably similar to the 90’s. We could be headed for some stormy weather over the next couple years.
Ciolli: For the time being, it seems like every time we get weakness, people use it as an excuse to buy the dip. What do you think is the most likely tipping point for the equity bear market you foresee in the next 12 to 24 months?
McMillan: I look around and I see two major sources of risk. First of all is international economic risk. And there’s also political risk, which exists all around the world, and clearly in the US.
The Italian election is certainly something that presents a lot of risk, as is the debt ceiling debate in the US. China is not out of the woods in terms of making its economic transition. There’s a lot of debt there. I’m not sure specifically how that could happen, but it’s certainly on the list of systemic risk factors.
Markets tend to rise with improving fundamentals, which is what we’re seeing with earnings at an increasing rate. While these factors are all very positive at the moment, the pain comes when they roll over.
Ciolli: Your firm published a recent blog post that asked if market complacency has reached a peak. The VIX is pinned to the mat, but it didn’t seem like you were particularly worried. What’s your view now?
McMillan: You have to look at two things: the level of risk, and the immediacy of that risk. You can compare it to high blood pressure — if you have high blood pressure, that doesn’t mean you’re going to have a heart attack, but it does mean you should be paying attention. We see signs from this indicator that we have a couple of tough years ahead of us. We’re worried over the medium-term, but not particularly worried over the short-term.
An exogenous shock is typically going to be the trigger for some sort of market correction, but it’s not really the cause. It’s important to distinguish that. When you look at the actual causes of significant bear markets, the biggest one is a recession. I’m not really going to get worried about a killer bear market until we get a recession. That’s the first thing we need to watch for, and chances are, that’s probably 12 to 24 months away. It’s not an immediate problem.
If you’re a young person with a 30 or 40 or 50-year horizon, that’s not necessarily concerning. For older investors that are starting to draw down, it’s something they need to pay more attention to.
Ciolli: If we’d done this interview a month or two ago, we probably would’ve been talking about Trump the whole time. But now it seems like headlines around Trump aren’t shocking the market as much anymore. Have you noticed the same thing?
McMillan: I see that, and I agree with it. We used the Trump bump to get into a higher range for valuations, and now fundamentals have proven capable of keeping us there.
There was an enormous amount of hope in the investor class that we’d see positive policy action from a unified Republican administration. While it hasn’t really played out like that, we’ve seen fundamentals improve, particularly from an earnings perspective. Even as the air is going out of the policy expectations, you’re seeing improving fundamentals buoy the market up. That’s why you’re seeing this range-bound trading. We’re losing the policy push, but we’re getting better fundamentals, and they’re largely offsetting each other.
Ciolli: With the Trump effect now muted, earnings growth is frequently cited as the biggest driver of the ongoing stock rally. Are there any other current catalysts that you feel are underrated or underappreciated?
McMillan: One of the major justifications for valuations right now is low interest rates. There’s an expectation, certainly on the fixed-income side, that rates are going to rise. What if the stock market is predicting correctly that rates are likely to stay low for an extended period? That could certainly help buoy valuations. But the problem with it is that the expectation of lower rates is inconsistent with the expectation of faster earnings growth, which is also embedded in the market.
If the stock market is perhaps predicting faster economic growth and continued low rates through persistent central bank action, that could be one of the factors driving us up.
Also, we’re in the first synchronized global upturn since the crisis. Even before the crisis, it wasn’t that common. Europe in particular is starting to pick up. China is continuing to chug along. It could just be a recognition that, over the next few years, we’re going to have a very favorable environment. So even if we pull back a bit in the US, we’ll be pushed forward by everyone else for the first time in a long time.
Ciolli: On the subject of share gains, there’s some debate around the leadership of the stock market rally. The FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) stocks have been blazing the trail, but people are divided as to whether that’s healthy. What do you think?
McMillan: If you go back through market history, there have been stocks over time that have offered growth, no matter what price you paid for them. Now we’re at a point where there are five or 10 driving performance. To some extent, what we’re seeing in the market is just a bet on a couple hyper-growth companies.
Because the indices we follow are market cap-weighted, the bigger those stocks get, the more influence they have. It’s kind of an upward spiral, which works very well on the upside, but raises risks on the downside. That’s what we need to focus on.
It’s a behavior pattern that we typically see close to the end of market cycles, which is one more supporting indicator that the next couple years will be tough.
Ciolli: Which areas of the market do you favor, and which do you avoid?
McMillan: We’ve been looking for some time at relative international exposure. Everyone wants to be in Europe now, and we’ve been talking about that for a long time. If you look at relative valuations, Europe is quite inexpensive compared to the US. And fund flows are starting to show a shift towards international.
Here in the US, financial institutions are absolutely looking to benefit from the Fed’s policy. They already have, and they’ll continue to do so. I’m optimistic about financials, but less so than many commentators. We’re starting to see loan growth trail off, and we’re rather late in the cycle.
I’ve been banging the drum on consumer discretionary for some time, and it’s worked out very well. For all the bad news about retail, and for all the constrained spending, there are still opportunities in the sector. There’s a fair amount of money out there to be spent.
What you’re buying with technology is the promise of growth. Right now, most things aren’t cheap. People tend to confuse the company versus the stock. You can have an absolutely terrific company that’s going to continue to knock the cover off the ball, but if it’s overpriced, it still might not be a good investment.
Ciolli: More philosophically, what’s the best piece of advice you can give to an investor just starting out right now?
McMillan: While technical knowledge is essential, a broader knowledge base is what takes you to the next level. Read history, read literature, understand how people think, and how they’ve acted in the past. Markets are all about people. Technical knowledge alone is not enough.
You need to read [Edward] Gibbon’s “The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.” Read Shakespeare. There’s more in Shakespeare about power, decision-making, ambition, and how people are blinded by their own needs that’s so incredibly applicable to the investment process. To see it in that context is something that makes it real. It’s not about the P/E ratio. Sure, you need to know that. But ultimately, it’s about the people that are investing.
If you read writing done by Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Howard Marks, they obviously have the technical fundamentals in place. But what they’re focused on is how to think, how to analyze a situation and how to understand where we are in light of where we’ve been. In order to do that, you need a much broader context than the investment universe.
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May 27, 2017 at 02:15PM
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May 21, 2017 at 01:55PM
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May 21, 2017 at 01:52PM
from Kate McCann
Welcome to this week’s edition of Star Money Articles.
The Retirement Manifesto covers the growing problem of never being able to retire.
ESI Money asks what are your three money truths.
Centsibly Rich lists three books that help make positive change.
Chief Mom Officer tells how her free dog cost thousands.
Money Boss discusses retirement and life expectancy.
Finally, my future purchase of the week is Osprey Packs Skarab 32 Hydration Pack, Carbon Grey, Medium/Large
Have a GREAT weekend!!!
May 12, 2017 at 02:13PM
from NA
Zions Bancorp (NASDAQ:ZION) – FBR & Co raised their Q2 2017 earnings per share estimates for Zions Bancorp in a note issued to investors on Tuesday. FBR & Co analyst B. Ramsey now anticipates that the bank will post earnings per share of $0.60 for the …
The post Equities Analysts Issue Forecasts for Zions Bancorp’s Q2 2017 Earnings (ZION) appeared first on ForexTV.
April 30, 2017 at 01:58PM
from Equities News Editor
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April 30, 2017 at 02:09PM
from /u/FuckenUnCuckeD
Hotel Equities will manage the 107-room Home2 Suites by Hilton Hotel in Carbondale, according to a news release. The hotel is expected to open in August. The Atlanta-based company will help manage the final construction and development phase of the property.
The post Hotel Equities to manage Carbondale business appeared first on ForexTV.
April 30, 2017 at 01:58PM
from Equities News Editor
Enter up to 25 symbols separated by commas or spaces in the text box below. These symbols will be available during your session for use on applicable pages. Please note that once you make your selection, it will apply to all future visits to NASDAQ.com.
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April 30, 2017 at 01:58PM
from Equities News Editor
Deutsche Welle |
‘Marriage of death’: Protesters oppose Bayer-Monsanto merger
Deutsche Welle At Bayer’s annual general meeting in Bonn, environmentalists and politicians voiced discontent over the proposed takeover. Both companies have come under fire for substandard ethical and environmental practices. |
April 30, 2017 at 02:09PM
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The digital path to most credit union website product pages involves navigation bars, drop-down menus, and secondary pages.
This is the standard “Point A leads to Point B that leads to Point C” and so on and so forth.
Sure, there’s nothing wrong with this execution as this has been a standard in web usability for the past decade.
But as web and mobile experiences become less linear as people enter your website through various search terms, credit unions must explore different structures in website architecture to help consumers get to their final destination quickly and efficiently, wherever that may be.
Enter Guided Selling
Part of our Digital Growth Blueprint engagements involve performing user testing sessions in which we ask consumers to complete a variety of tasks on credit union websites. These tasks range from simply reviewing a financial institution’s homepage to providing detailed feedback on the account opening process.
After reviewing dozens of these recorded sessions, we began to identify a recurring pattern specifically when users were asked to comparison shop a specific product against several competitors.
We found a positive correlation between a website’s favorability when it incorporated a technique known as guided selling.
The term guided selling is pretty self-explanatory. It is a process in which you guide consumers through the buying process by helping them identify the best product or service that is right for them. In this scenario, you hand over control to the user, allowing them to create their own digital journey versus forcing them down a pre-defined linear path designed for the masses.
This concept of guidance is fundamental to our StorySelling methodology, which we use as a model to assist credit unions in crafting digital stories that sell.
One of the most important components of the StorySelling methodology is the advice offered by the helpful guide. It is not a heavy-handed approach, but also not completely hands-off either.
The same is true for the concept of guided selling.
Allow consumers to control their own digital experience through guided selling. From there, you can simply guide them along the way with helpful content, providing them the solution that best meets their needs.
Here are several ways as to how your credit union can begin to incorporate the concept of guided selling on your website.
Be Proactive
Far too often, we find credit union websites are reactive in nature because they are nothing more than glorified online brochures. And online brochures do not generate sales because they passively wait for a prospect to ask for help.
Alternatively, implementing a digital guided selling approach transforms your website to become proactive in a consumer’s buying journey. And being proactive is a key component to building a website that sells.
Like the best salespeople, a digital sales process should embody five characteristics:
Recommendation: On key product pages, such as mortgages, auto loans, and small business lending, display an unobtrusive message after a certain amount of time has passed and ask if the website visitor needs further help or if they have any questions. This could be part of a live chat feature or linked directly to a contact form.
Simply Ask
“How can we help you?”
Really, it’s not a complicated question.
It’s most likely being asked in your financial institution’s face-to-face or call center interactions with consumers, allowing you to identify their specific questions and concerns or hopes and dreams.
Yet this straightforward question is rarely asked in the digital space as credit unions continue to adopt traditional broadcast marketing tactics for their digital channels.
One method is listening.
The other is talking.
When reviewing a user test for one of our Digital Growth Blueprint engagements, a key feature the user kept referring to throughout the session was this simple question. “How can we help you?” was featured prominently on the homepage of a competitor’s website, followed by a drop down menu of various options.
“This is already looking like a conversation,” the user said in response to the prompted question.
The user noted the reduced amount of clicks to get to the information he was looking for and compared this “simple” process to the other financial websites, which the user noted as “tedious.”
By building a website infrastructure that can prompt consumers with questions, your credit union will simplify consumer journeys and ultimately reduce the amount of clicks, or friction points, to guide the consumer quickly to where they want to go.
Recommendation: There are a variety of ways to ask questions to simplify consumer journeys on your website. Review how Louisiana FCU retooled this question of “How can we help you?” on their homepage. Compare this process to your home page.
Needs Assessment
If your credit union has multiple offerings for a specific product line, you may want to explore the concept of guided selling to recommend a specific product based on a certain need.
For example, if your credit union has several checking accounts, what are the primary differentiating factors between the various products? Does one account offer no minimum balance but a monthly service fee? Does another provide monthly ATM fee rebates?
By identifying these differences, you can begin to craft an interactive assessment that, when once completed, will provide consumers with a recommended product based upon their needs.
This guided selling approach can be implemented across your various products, allowing consumers to identify and select the appropriate product based upon your personalized recommendations.
Recommendation: Review how Navy Federal Credit Union uses this guided selling approach on their key product pages. Take the assessments yourself and note how the recommendations change based on key product features. Does this help to simplify the product offerings offered by Navy Federal?
Life Events
Another manner in which you can use guided selling is to move away from generic product offerings and tailor the conversations around significant life events. These would be crafted around a consumer’s hopes and dreams, whether that is getting married or buying their first home or retiring.
For example, what do recent graduates from college need to consider when evaluating their financial standing?
To excel at this approach, having a defined content marketing strategy is necessary. This will help you tailor these conversations even further as you begin to identify the specific questions and concerns consumers have during these life events.
No longer will you just be providing a list of recommended products and services as you begin to provide helpful content that demonstrates that your credit union is a trusted financial matters expert.
Recommendation: Review USAA’s Advice Center. Note the various types of resources provided as USAA provides not only products and services based on life stage, but helpful content as well.
Product Comparison
As demonstrated by Google’s Zero Moment of Truth research, “banking shoppers used an average of 8.9 sources of information to help them make their purchase decision.”
This data has been validated by our user testing of credit union websites as many proactively comparison shop different financial products and services before ever being prompted.
In other words, people are comparing your products and services against the competition.
If you feel you truly offer a superior product against your competitors, why not provide a product comparison tool to demonstrate this to consumers?
Because if marketing is about controlling the message, wouldn’t you want consumers to evaluate your product against the competition on your own terms?
This isn’t to say that a consumer isn’t going to research other competitor websites. However, through product comparison tools, your credit union can demonstrate the superiority of your product’s benefits against the competition.
There are several methods in which to provide this information to consumers:
Infographics: In our assessments of dozens of credit union websites, several financial institutions provide graphical representations of how much consumers can save by moving their finances. For example, Suncoast Credit Union provides a snapshot of their savings for key products (auto loan, credit card, and mortgages) in comparison to Florida averages.
Calculators: This method of guided selling can provide a customized digital experience, allowing consumers to control the calculations based on their own parameters. Calculators, such as NASA FCU’s Dealer vs. Credit Union Financial Calculator, provide users the ability to compare the financing options of both the credit union and dealership.
Tables: Instead of just relying upon a list of commoditized product features, several financial institutions use this tactic and consolidate information in a centralized location, providing consumers the ability to perform a side-by-side comparison of similar products. DuGood FCU’s checking page uses a product comparison table to position their checking account against similar products from Chase and Wells Fargo.
Recommendation: Most credit union product pages consist of an introductory paragraph and a list of product features. But in a commoditized industry, financial institutions must go beyond competing with “great rates” and “amazing service.” Use this product positioning exercise with your team to determine how your products are positioned against your top three competitors. Most likely, you will find many similarities and no clear differentiation. We recommend exploring the option of using a product comparison tool to begin to differentiate your products from the competition.
The post Five ways to use guided selling to enhance your credit union website appeared first on CUInsight.
April 28, 2017 at 02:06PM
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April 24, 2017 at 02:07PM
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April 24, 2017 at 02:07PM
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Ventureburn |
6 artificial intelligence startups in Africa to look out for [Digital All Stars]
Ventureburn Founded in 2011 by Dayne and Ryan Falkenberg (pictured here) and Mark Pederson, the Stellenbosch-based company uses virtual advisors on artificial intelligence platforms to advise sales and technical consultants. The platform has been adopted by a wide … |
April 24, 2017 at 02:14PM
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